The article below was first published by the Israeli daily Haaretz on October 12, 2025.

It offers a convincing analysis of the ceasefire that went into effect in Gaza on October 10 after Hamas largely agreed to the Trump-Netanyahu Gaza plan.

We publish this article for the information of our readers. The headline, subhead, text, and photos that follow are from the original.

— World-Outlook editors

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Analysis – Gaza Ceasefire Returns Israel and Hamas to Square One: Containing the Conflict Until the Next Eruption

As Israelis prepare for a mix of celebration and mourning with the return of the hostages, living and dead, Palestinians face a deeper reckoning over their shattered national movement and the absence of any leadership or vision for what comes next

By Jack Khoury

October 12, 2025

The cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas does not mark the end of the war in Gaza, but the beginning of a new and perhaps the most complex stage so far: shaping the day after.

That will not happen immediately. These are not days for long-term strategic thinking, but for brief moments of relief. In Israel, emotions will run high. There will be celebrations over the release of the living hostages and deep pain as the bodies of others are returned.

Once the initial wave of emotion fades, the charged question of establishing a state commission of inquiry into the failures that led to the October 7 massacre and the ensuing war in Gaza will resurface.

On the Palestinian side, the situation is far more complicated. As displaced residents return to their homes and the extent of the destruction becomes clear, Hamas is trying to craft a narrative that justifies the arrangement it was forced to accept.

The organization prefers to ignore the fact that it agreed to release all the hostages in exchange for only a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, which is now significantly smaller than it was on the eve of the October 7 attack.

Hamas can neither point to the release of any prominent figure with symbolic significance, such as Marwan Barghouti or Ahmad Sa’adat, among the 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees who will be freed. Anything that could be seen as a moral or symbolic achievement for Hamas is absent from the agreement.

The organization now faces a reckoning, both internally and with the Palestinian public. Hamas must decide whether it wants to remain a resistance movement or evolve into a political actor that could eventually join the PLO.

Fatah and the Palestinian Authority face a similar test. It is unclear whether either fully understands the depth of the national rupture. Are they truly willing to rebuild Palestinian national institutions, or will they continue to struggle for control and power at the expense of a people left without any ability to influence political decisions?

The Palestinians are once again facing a historic question that has returned time and again since 1948: what now, and where next? It was asked after 1967, after the civil war in Jordan in 1970, after the PLO’s expulsion from Beirut in 1982, and following the two intifadas. After every bloody chapter, the same existential question arose about the future of the Palestinian national project.

But this time the question feels more urgent. Two years of devastating war have dismantled almost every component of the Palestinian political system. There is no functioning PLO and no leadership capable of articulating a unifying vision.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump and the international community are outlining a plan for what comes next. It includes the creation of an international council to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction. Among the names mentioned are former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and several veteran Arab diplomats, but no legitimate Palestinian partner.

Even the summit planned by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and Trump is expected to take place without clear Palestinian leadership. When the goals are reduced to a cease-fire, reconstruction and humanitarian relief, there is little prospect for real political progress.

In the end, the agreement between Israel and Hamas is primarily a deal for the exchange of hostages and prisoners and the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza. It offers no answers to the broader questions of governance, security or future political arrangements.

That failure belongs to all parties: Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and the international community. It is still unclear whether Israel will complete its withdrawal from Gaza or what Hamas’ future role in the enclave will be. Nothing in the agreement suggests the beginning of a political process. After yet another round of negotiations, the sides have returned to the same place: managing the conflict until the next eruption.

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